Crisis on the China Rim: An Economic, Crude Oil, and Military Analysis

"There is a crisis rising on the China Rim, a crisis made of economic imbalances, energy insecurities, ancient hatreds, and unsettled scores. The catalyst for this crisis is success itself, the success of the People’s Republic of China in its de facto rejection of a failed experiment in communism and its rapid transformation into a thriving market economy. The inseparable companion of this success, though, is an insatiable hunger and thirst for precious resources... most important among these, crude oil."

2005.04.14 | 85 pages | download

Chris Patten, former Hong Kong Governor-General, delivered the keynote address in Singapore on 2005.05.16 to the Tax Free World Association's Asia-Pacific Conference.  In that address he outlined his view of the likely impact of an emerging China.   Here are some excerpts from that speech:

"What we are witnessing is the re-emergence of China and India as global heavyweights."

"Now we are used to living in a world which has been shaped and led by the trans-Atlantic community - by America principally, but also Europe - and I think we should sometimes consider how much longer that is going to be true."

"Within a decade, China will almost certainly become the world's largest exporter and the world's largest importer."

On the sidelines of that conference following his keynote speech, Patten was quoted by Singapore's TODAYonline as saying the following regarding cross-Strait tensions between China and Taiwan:

"Taiwan - and the mainland has to recognise this - is a boisterous but real democracy.  There is no history around the world of people giving up democratic institutions for authoritarian institutions willingly.  So, I think unification will only come with political change in China."

Patten's unique perspective as the Governor-General of Hong Kong who served at the time of that Territory's handover to China make his views, in our opinion, particularly noteworthy.

Posted by:
Kevin B. Skislock
Partner and CEO
Laguna Research Partners
[bio] [disclaimer]

-----

Fair Use Notice: This Weblog ("blog") page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner.  Laguna Research Partners LLC believes that this use constitutes a "fair use" of any such copyrighted material as provided for by US Copyright Law.  In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this Weblog page is distributed without profit to those who have chosen to view the included material for educational, informational, and/or research purposes.  If you wish to use copyrighted material from this Weblog page for purposes that go beyond "fair use", you must obtain prior permission from the copyright owner.