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LRP's Original "China Rim" Analysis

Crisis on the China Rim: An Economic,
Crude Oil, and Military Analysis

"There is a crisis rising on the China Rim, a crisis made of economic imbalances, energy insecurities, ancient hatreds, and unsettled scores. The catalyst for this crisis is success itself, the success of the People’s Republic of China in its de facto rejection of a failed experiment in communism and its rapid transformation into a thriving market economy. The inseparable companion of this success, though, is an insatiable hunger and thirst for precious resources... most important among these, crude oil."

2005.04.14 | 85 pages | download

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LRP Geoeconomic Research and Analysis
The China Rim: Economic, Crude Oil, and Military Analysis
In April 2005, Laguna Research Partners its global energy thesis titled Crisis on the China Rim: An Economic, Crude Oil, and Military Analysis.  In that study, we detailed a radically new context for analyzing the emergence of the Chinese economy, the impact of that emergence on global energy markets, and the implications of China’s economic rise for the People’s Liberation Army, the ultimate guarantor of China’s energy security.

Our China Rim Insights reports, plus commentary and analysis from notable experts based in the China Rim region, provide our business intelligence and investment research clients with on-going updates to our original China Rim thesis.

2008.03.04 - China Rim Insights: Crude Oil Price Analysis: "Long-Term Demand and Supply Factors Point to Continued Uptrend in Prices; Extreme Price Volatility Expected to Persist"

2008.02.22 - Vietnam: Equity Market Commentary: "I Love the Smell of Capitulation in the Morning" (Kevin Snowball, Director, PXP Vietnam Asset Management Limited, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

2008.01.23 - Vietnam: Equity Market Commentary: "Coincidence, NOT Correlation" (Kevin Snowball, Director, PXP Vietnam Asset Management Limited, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

2007.07.02 - China Rim Insights: Japan's Crude Oil Imports Continue to Slide

2007.05.30 - China Rim Insights: China's Crude Oil Imports Surge in April

2006.08.08 - China Rim/Energy Brief: Crude Oil: China Circumventing Malacca, and Kazakhstan Circumventing Russia

2006.07.25 - China Rim/Energy Brief: China’s Crude Oil Consumption and Imports Continue to Surge

2006.06.05 - China Rim/Defense Brief: US, Vietnam Strengthen Military Ties as Bilateral Trade Booms

2006.04.19 - Vietnam: An Energy Sector Update Report

2006.01.25 - China's Economy Continues to Surprise to the Upside

2006.01.11  - China Floats Proposal to Construct Trans-Kazakhstan Gas Pipeline

2005.12.10 - China Releases New Energy Production and Proven Reserve Forecasts

2005.11.21 - China's Energy Security Receives Big Boost from Completion of Trans-Kazakhstan Pipeline

2005.10.29 - China's Economy Continues to Race Forward During Q3:05

2005.10.25 - Tensions Over East China Sea Energy Resources Heighten as Japanese Reconnaissance Photos Detect "Major Threat to Japanese Sovereignty"

2005.09.17 - Geo-Strategic Overview of East Asia Theater from The Washington Post

2005.09.15 - The East China Sea Keeps Getting "Smaller"

2005.09.07 - China: "Competition" Coming to People's Liberation Army Procurement Process

2005.09.05 - Japan Coast Guard Seeks Funds for Okinotori Island "Lighthouse" in Energy-Rich East China Sea

2005.08.28 - Crude Oil Futures Trade Above US$70.00 as After Hours Trading Resumes on NYMEX

2005.08.22 - China Determined to Establish Beachhead in China Rim's Strategically-Located, Oil-Rich Kazakhstan

2005.08.16 - China-Russia "Peace Mission 2005" Military Exercise Provides Russia with Major Arms Sale Opportunity

2005.08.15 - Jane's: Is China Preparing to Float Its First-Ever Aircraft Carrier?

2005.08.14 - China: Oil Import Growth Accelerates to 15.0% in July

2005.08.10 - China-Japan Energy Tensions Rise In the East China Sea

2005.08.04 - International Energy Competition Likely to Intensify as China's CNOOC Drops Bid for US's Unocal

2005.07.31 - Indonesia to Remain Full Member of OPEC Despite Collapsing Production

2005.07.19 - US DoD Releases Its 2005 China Military Power Report to Congress

2005.07.19 - China's Oil Refining Industry Suffers Significant Financial Losses During M5:05

2005.07.16 - China "Ups the Ante" Over East China Sea Energy Rights

2005.07.15 - China Summons Japan Diplomat Over East China Sea Drilling Developments

2005.07.15 - Chinese General Threatens US with Nuclear Retaliation Over Taiwan

2005.07.14 - Japan Losing Patience with a Confrontational China in the East China Sea

2005.07.13 - China and India: Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Update

2005.07.12 - China's Customs General Administration: China's Oil Deficit Could Grow to US$40 Billion in 2005

2005.07.07 - Terror Attack on UK Drives Oil Prices Down

2005.07.06 - The Flip Side of the China Growth Story: Bank of Korea Cuts 2005 GDP Growth Forecast Due to Surging Oil Prices

2005.07.05 - Taiwanese MND: "Coastal Defense Military Drill" to Coincide with Chinese "Shanghai Maritime Search and Rescue Drill"

2005.06.30 - The China Rim's Wild, Wild West Frontier Re-Visited: Kazakhstan Flexing Its Energy Security Muscle

2005.06.27 - EU and Israel Acquiesce to US On Arms Sales to China

2005.06.26 - Crude Oil Prices Hit New High of $60.45 in Early-Morning Monday Asian Trading

2005.06.26 - Energy Security: "Oil Shockwave" Crisis Simulation Assumes Supply Disruption of Just 4.2% and Causes Crude Oil Price of US$161.00

2005.06.26 - Citing China and India, UK PM Blair Warns Troubled EU of "Strategic Failure"

2005.06.24 - China: Crude Oil Imports Up 8.2% in May Versus Year Earlier

2005.06.23 - Crude Oil Prices, III: Market Focus Shifts to Long-Term Demand and Light, Sweet Price Hits All-Time High of US$60.00

2005.06.22 - US and Vietnam "Go Public" with Sharply Improved Relations, We See Defense Pact As Likely Within Five Years

2005.06.15 - BP "Statistical Review of World Energy 2005": Increased Asian Demand a Major Factor in Higher Crude Oil Prices

2005.06.15 - FAQ: The NYMEX Division Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures Contract

2005.06.13 - Controversial Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline Could Grow Another Branch... to China

2005.06.12 - China Daily: Construction of China's First Strategic Petroleum Reserve Site to be Completed in August 2005

2005.06.12 - Mercury News / SiliconBeat: "Nanosolar, Miasolé Stir Up Solar Cell Market" and Attract Major Venture Funding

2005.06.11 - India Starts to Feel the Pinch of Encirclement by China

2005.06.11 - Development of Pakistan's Gwadar Port - and China's Direct "Land Bridge" Access to the Arabian Sea - Accelerated

2005.06.09 - Oilcast.com: Energy Industry News "To Go" Via Podcast

2005.06.07 - Shell Oil's New Global Scenarios to 2050 Analysis Anticipates Rising "Energy Security" Tensions

2005.06.07 - Agonist.org Interviews Twilight in the Desert Author and Energy Industry Investment Banker Matthew R. Simmons

2005.06.07 - China's State-Owned CNOOC Says It Might Challenge Chevron Bid for Unocal

2005.06.05 - NYT: "India's Quest for Energy Is Reshaping Its Diplomacy"

2005.06.01 - Crude Oil Prices Re-Visited

2005.05.28 - "Oil Storm" The Movie: Energy Security Goes Mainstream

2005.05.28 - China and Canada: "Fueling the Dragon..."

2005.05.27 - China Rim 2050: Economy, Crude Oil, and Military

2005.05.25 - Crude Oil Prices: A Look At the Charts

2005.05.20 - US Oil Giants Worry, "Is Kazakhstan Next?"

2005.05.18 - UK's Chris Patten: China and India Will Share World Leadership Status with US

2005.05.17 - China's President Hu: China GDP of US$4 Trillion by 2020

2005.05.14 - China Daily: "China in Midst of Toilet Modernization"

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